Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.684876 3.678237 5.093009 7.327638 1.091238e+01 1.671561e+01 27.467240
2025-02-16 1.791694 2.833919 4.633968 8.233782 1.602648e+01 3.448731e+01 92.257498
2025-02-23 1.190635 2.091344 3.892247 8.264619 2.069296e+01 6.446232e+01 334.051485
2025-03-02 0.805710 1.532898 3.164449 7.826629 2.485446e+01 1.161816e+02 1578.488106
2025-03-09 0.622323 1.284936 2.964018 8.726592 3.744285e+01 3.248453e+02 51902.008812
2025-03-16 0.486990 1.077716 2.742596 9.519152 5.615939e+01 1.124968e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.397106 0.938011 2.627668 10.824974 9.289110e+01 7.462843e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.326773 0.816592 2.492940 12.089981 1.559127e+02 1.764251e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.257819 0.667645 2.155468 11.686457 2.061810e+02 6.082365e+07 NaN
2025-04-13 0.203537 0.540877 1.819907 10.746395 2.466382e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.173856 0.480041 1.719408 11.610275 4.230518e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.155218 0.447922 1.727484 13.786477 9.951746e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.139582 0.422320 1.767297 17.162449 3.455257e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.121595 0.380275 1.687362 19.022799 1.081624e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.102769 0.327380 1.501734 18.487354 2.299712e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.086174 0.277488 1.298053 16.851178 3.684706e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.077159 0.255350 1.256226 18.776005 3.279041e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.069077 0.234030 1.203118 20.446905 1.706087e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.063021 0.219210 1.184975 23.476227 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.057487 0.204630 1.156808 26.447052 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.050669 0.181779 1.043547 25.098173 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.044365 0.159553 0.920356 22.491715 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.040808 0.149318 0.891346 24.474422 NaN NaN NaN